full transcript
From the Ted Talk "Daniel Levitin: How to stay calm when you know you'll be stressed"

#### Unscramble the Blue Letters

Now you're probably thinking, "Well, OK, one in 300 chance of lowering my cholesterol. Why not, doc? Give me the prescription anyway." But you should ask at this point for another statistic, and that is, "Tell me about the side effects." Right? So for this particular drug, the side effects occur in five percent of the patients. And they include terrible things — dtbniiilateg emlucs and joint pain, aitssrnaloegnitt distress — but now you're iinngkht, "Five percent, not very likely it's going to happen to me, I'll still take the drug." But wait a minute. Remember under stress you're not thinking clearly. So think about how you're going to work through this ahead of time, so you don't have to manufacture the chain of reasoning on the spot. 300 people take the drug, right? One person's edhepl, five percent of those 300 have sedi effects, that's 15 people. You're 15 times more likely to be dehram by the drug than you are to be helped by the drug.

#### Open Cloze

Now you're probably thinking, "Well, OK, one in 300 chance of lowering my cholesterol. Why not, doc? Give me the prescription anyway." But you should ask at this point for another statistic, and that is, "Tell me about the side effects." Right? So for this particular drug, the side effects occur in five percent of the patients. And they include terrible things — ____________ ______ and joint pain, ________________ distress — but now you're ________, "Five percent, not very likely it's going to happen to me, I'll still take the drug." But wait a minute. Remember under stress you're not thinking clearly. So think about how you're going to work through this ahead of time, so you don't have to manufacture the chain of reasoning on the spot. 300 people take the ____, right? One person's ______, five percent of those 300 have ____ effects, that's 15 people. You're 15 times more likely to be ______ by the drug than you are to be helped by the drug.

#### Solution

1. debilitating
2. muscle
3. harmed
4. thinking
5. drug
6. helped
7. gastrointestinal
8. side

#### Original Text

Now you're probably thinking, "Well, OK, one in 300 chance of lowering my cholesterol. Why not, doc? Give me the prescription anyway." But you should ask at this point for another statistic, and that is, "Tell me about the side effects." Right? So for this particular drug, the side effects occur in five percent of the patients. And they include terrible things — debilitating muscle and joint pain, gastrointestinal distress — but now you're thinking, "Five percent, not very likely it's going to happen to me, I'll still take the drug." But wait a minute. Remember under stress you're not thinking clearly. So think about how you're going to work through this ahead of time, so you don't have to manufacture the chain of reasoning on the spot. 300 people take the drug, right? One person's helped, five percent of those 300 have side effects, that's 15 people. You're 15 times more likely to be harmed by the drug than you are to be helped by the drug.

#### ngrams of length 2

collocation frequency
pre mortem 5
side effects 4
number needed 4
releases cortisol 3
decision making 3

#### Important Words

1. chain
2. chance
3. cholesterol
4. debilitating
5. distress
6. doc
7. drug
8. effects
9. gastrointestinal
10. give
11. happen
12. harmed
13. helped
14. include
15. joint
16. lowering
17. manufacture
18. minute
19. muscle
20. occur
21. pain
22. patients
23. people
24. percent
25. point
26. prescription
27. reasoning
28. remember
29. side
30. spot
31. statistic
32. stress
33. terrible
34. thinking
35. time
36. times
37. wait
38. work