full transcript
#### From the Ted Talk by Alex Gendler: Can you solve the monster duel riddle?

## Unscramble the Blue Letters

For many Diskymon trainers, it seems intuitive that if A is the best at beating B or C, it should also be the best at bniateg B and C. Strangely enough, that couldn’t be further from the truth. Let’s catlacule the odds. For A to win, B has to smumon a level 2 dmsykion, and C has to summon a level 1. Those are independent events, so their odds are 56% times 51%, or 29%. For disk B, a level 2 Churrozard would automatically lose to the Burgersaur. But you’d have two ways to win. The 22% chance of summoning a level 6 would give you an outright win, while a level 4 could still win if C summons a level 1. Adding up those mutually exclusive possibilities gives you odds of about 33%. Finally, C will win with a level 5 Wartortilla as long as B doesn’t summon its lveel 6, giving C a 38% chance overall. So while disk A’s middling consistency was an advantage in a single matchup, multiple fights increase the odds that one of the other dskis will summon something better. And although C was the worst first-round option, its decent chance of summoning a strong level 5 gives it an avaantdge when fincag two opponents simultaneously. This sort of counterintuitive result is why misleading statistics are a favored tool of ulrcnsuupous pciloiantis and nefarious Diskymon trainers alkie.
## Open Cloze

For many Diskymon trainers, it seems intuitive that if A is the best at beating B or C, it should also be the best at **_______** B and C. Strangely enough, that couldn’t be further from the truth. Let’s **_________** the odds. For A to win, B has to **______** a level 2 **________**, and C has to summon a level 1. Those are independent events, so their odds are 56% times 51%, or 29%. For disk B, a level 2 Churrozard would automatically lose to the Burgersaur. But you’d have two ways to win. The 22% chance of summoning a level 6 would give you an outright win, while a level 4 could still win if C summons a level 1. Adding up those mutually exclusive possibilities gives you odds of about 33%. Finally, C will win with a level 5 Wartortilla as long as B doesn’t summon its **_____** 6, giving C a 38% chance overall. So while disk A’s middling consistency was an advantage in a single matchup, multiple fights increase the odds that one of the other **_____** will summon something better. And although C was the worst first-round option, its decent chance of summoning a strong level 5 gives it an **_________** when **______** two opponents simultaneously. This sort of counterintuitive result is why misleading statistics are a favored tool of **____________** **___________** and nefarious Diskymon trainers **_____**.
## Solution

- summon
- diskymon
- advantage
- level
- disks
- beating
- alike
- unscrupulous
- calculate
- facing
- politicians

## Original Text

For many Diskymon trainers, it seems intuitive that if A is the best at beating B or C, it should also be the best at beating B and C. Strangely enough, that couldn’t be further from the truth. Let’s calculate the odds. For A to win, B has to summon a level 2 Diskymon, and C has to summon a level 1. Those are independent events, so their odds are 56% times 51%, or 29%. For disk B, a level 2 Churrozard would automatically lose to the Burgersaur. But you’d have two ways to win. The 22% chance of summoning a level 6 would give you an outright win, while a level 4 could still win if C summons a level 1. Adding up those mutually exclusive possibilities gives you odds of about 33%. Finally, C will win with a level 5 Wartortilla as long as B doesn’t summon its level 6, giving C a 38% chance overall. So while disk A’s middling consistency was an advantage in a single matchup, multiple fights increase the odds that one of the other disks will summon something better. And although C was the worst first-round option, its decent chance of summoning a strong level 5 gives it an advantage when facing two opponents simultaneously. This sort of counterintuitive result is why misleading statistics are a favored tool of unscrupulous politicians and nefarious Diskymon trainers alike.
## Frequently Occurring Word Combinations

### ngrams of length 2

collocation |
frequency |

level diskymon |
2 |

## Important Words

- adding
- advantage
- alike
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- beating
- burgersaur
- calculate
- chance
- churrozard
- consistency
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- politicians
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- statistics
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- summon
- summoning
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- times
- tool
- trainers
- truth
- unscrupulous
- wartortilla
- ways
- win
- worst