full transcript

From the Ted Talk by Alex Gendler: Can you solve the monster duel riddle?

Unscramble the Blue Letters

For many Diskymon trainers, it seems intuitive that if A is the best at beating B or C, it should also be the best at bniateg B and C. Strangely enough, that couldn’t be further from the truth. Let’s catlacule the odds. For A to win, B has to smumon a level 2 dmsykion, and C has to summon a level 1. Those are independent events, so their odds are 56% times 51%, or 29%. For disk B, a level 2 Churrozard would automatically lose to the Burgersaur. But you’d have two ways to win. The 22% chance of summoning a level 6 would give you an outright win, while a level 4 could still win if C summons a level 1. Adding up those mutually exclusive possibilities gives you odds of about 33%. Finally, C will win with a level 5 Wartortilla as long as B doesn’t summon its lveel 6, giving C a 38% chance overall. So while disk A’s middling consistency was an advantage in a single matchup, multiple fights increase the odds that one of the other dskis will summon something better. And although C was the worst first-round option, its decent chance of summoning a strong level 5 gives it an avaantdge when fincag two opponents simultaneously. This sort of counterintuitive result is why misleading statistics are a favored tool of ulrcnsuupous pciloiantis and nefarious Diskymon trainers alkie.

Open Cloze

For many Diskymon trainers, it seems intuitive that if A is the best at beating B or C, it should also be the best at _______ B and C. Strangely enough, that couldn’t be further from the truth. Let’s _________ the odds. For A to win, B has to ______ a level 2 ________, and C has to summon a level 1. Those are independent events, so their odds are 56% times 51%, or 29%. For disk B, a level 2 Churrozard would automatically lose to the Burgersaur. But you’d have two ways to win. The 22% chance of summoning a level 6 would give you an outright win, while a level 4 could still win if C summons a level 1. Adding up those mutually exclusive possibilities gives you odds of about 33%. Finally, C will win with a level 5 Wartortilla as long as B doesn’t summon its _____ 6, giving C a 38% chance overall. So while disk A’s middling consistency was an advantage in a single matchup, multiple fights increase the odds that one of the other _____ will summon something better. And although C was the worst first-round option, its decent chance of summoning a strong level 5 gives it an _________ when ______ two opponents simultaneously. This sort of counterintuitive result is why misleading statistics are a favored tool of ____________ ___________ and nefarious Diskymon trainers _____.

Solution

  1. summon
  2. diskymon
  3. advantage
  4. level
  5. disks
  6. beating
  7. alike
  8. unscrupulous
  9. calculate
  10. facing
  11. politicians

Original Text

For many Diskymon trainers, it seems intuitive that if A is the best at beating B or C, it should also be the best at beating B and C. Strangely enough, that couldn’t be further from the truth. Let’s calculate the odds. For A to win, B has to summon a level 2 Diskymon, and C has to summon a level 1. Those are independent events, so their odds are 56% times 51%, or 29%. For disk B, a level 2 Churrozard would automatically lose to the Burgersaur. But you’d have two ways to win. The 22% chance of summoning a level 6 would give you an outright win, while a level 4 could still win if C summons a level 1. Adding up those mutually exclusive possibilities gives you odds of about 33%. Finally, C will win with a level 5 Wartortilla as long as B doesn’t summon its level 6, giving C a 38% chance overall. So while disk A’s middling consistency was an advantage in a single matchup, multiple fights increase the odds that one of the other disks will summon something better. And although C was the worst first-round option, its decent chance of summoning a strong level 5 gives it an advantage when facing two opponents simultaneously. This sort of counterintuitive result is why misleading statistics are a favored tool of unscrupulous politicians and nefarious Diskymon trainers alike.

Frequently Occurring Word Combinations

ngrams of length 2

collocation frequency
level diskymon 2

Important Words

  1. adding
  2. advantage
  3. alike
  4. automatically
  5. beating
  6. burgersaur
  7. calculate
  8. chance
  9. churrozard
  10. consistency
  11. counterintuitive
  12. decent
  13. disk
  14. disks
  15. diskymon
  16. events
  17. exclusive
  18. facing
  19. favored
  20. fights
  21. finally
  22. give
  23. giving
  24. increase
  25. independent
  26. intuitive
  27. level
  28. long
  29. lose
  30. matchup
  31. middling
  32. misleading
  33. multiple
  34. mutually
  35. nefarious
  36. odds
  37. opponents
  38. option
  39. outright
  40. politicians
  41. possibilities
  42. result
  43. simultaneously
  44. single
  45. sort
  46. statistics
  47. strangely
  48. strong
  49. summon
  50. summoning
  51. summons
  52. times
  53. tool
  54. trainers
  55. truth
  56. unscrupulous
  57. wartortilla
  58. ways
  59. win
  60. worst