full transcript

From the Ted Talk by Gerd Gigerenzer: Why do people fear the wrong things?

Unscramble the Blue Letters

To see why the defircnefe between the two ways of expressing risk matters, let’s consider the hypothetical example of a drug that ruceeds heart atcatk risk by 40%. Imagine that out of a group of 1,000 people who didn’t take the new drug, 10 would have heart attacks. The absolute risk is 10 out of 1,000, or 1%. If a similar group of 1,000 people did take the drug, the number of hreat attacks would be six. In other words, the drug could prevent four out of ten heart attacks— a relative risk riteudocn of 40%. Meanwhile, the absolute risk only dropped from 1% to 0.6%— but the 40% relative risk deacsree sounds a lot more significant.

Open Cloze

To see why the __________ between the two ways of expressing risk matters, let’s consider the hypothetical example of a drug that _______ heart ______ risk by 40%. Imagine that out of a group of 1,000 people who didn’t take the new drug, 10 would have heart attacks. The absolute risk is 10 out of 1,000, or 1%. If a similar group of 1,000 people did take the drug, the number of _____ attacks would be six. In other words, the drug could prevent four out of ten heart attacks— a relative risk _________ of 40%. Meanwhile, the absolute risk only dropped from 1% to 0.6%— but the 40% relative risk ________ sounds a lot more significant.

Solution

  1. reduction
  2. heart
  3. difference
  4. decrease
  5. reduces
  6. attack

Original Text

To see why the difference between the two ways of expressing risk matters, let’s consider the hypothetical example of a drug that reduces heart attack risk by 40%. Imagine that out of a group of 1,000 people who didn’t take the new drug, 10 would have heart attacks. The absolute risk is 10 out of 1,000, or 1%. If a similar group of 1,000 people did take the drug, the number of heart attacks would be six. In other words, the drug could prevent four out of ten heart attacks— a relative risk reduction of 40%. Meanwhile, the absolute risk only dropped from 1% to 0.6%— but the 40% relative risk decrease sounds a lot more significant.

Frequently Occurring Word Combinations

ngrams of length 2

collocation frequency
heart attacks 6
absolute risk 6
risk reduction 3
relative risk 3
heart attack 3
shark attacks 2
risk evaluation 2
absolute terms 2
attack risk 2
shark attack 2

ngrams of length 3

collocation frequency
relative risk reduction 2
heart attack risk 2

Important Words

  1. absolute
  2. attack
  3. attacks
  4. decrease
  5. difference
  6. dropped
  7. drug
  8. expressing
  9. group
  10. heart
  11. hypothetical
  12. imagine
  13. lot
  14. matters
  15. number
  16. people
  17. prevent
  18. reduces
  19. reduction
  20. relative
  21. risk
  22. significant
  23. similar
  24. sounds
  25. ten
  26. ways
  27. words